Overview: The ISM manufacturing index was unchanged in April at 48.6. Although contracting moderately, the recent months of data suggest that the manufacturing sector continues to hold up quite well compared to other parts of the economy. Again the survey sent a message of continued significant price pressures in the production pipeline.
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The dollar rose against the euro in New York trading late Friday night. The 15-nation currency dropped to $1.5423 from $1.5460 it traded late Thursday.
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• Spending on goods fell, but services continued solid • Non-residential investment deteriorated significantly, signaling a future broad based deterioration • We maintain our forecast of 1% GDP growth in 2008 GDP growth remained at a sluggish 0.6% in 1Q08. This was 0.4 pp less than our estimate. On a year-over-year basis, real GDP growth was 2.5%, similar to that of 4Q07. Private consumer expenditures (PCE), government spending, net exports and private inventories added to growth. This was
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Trading in the currency markets today is extremely quiet as everyone awaits the U.S. employment numbers due out at 14:30 CET. Forecasts are calling for a drop in the Non-Farm Payroll numbers of between -50,000 to -90,000 jobs, with an average forecast of -75,000. Currently, the general market sentiment is for a stronger dollar in reaction to the dollar’s recent losses over the last few weeks. This sentiment has the potential to set up a “buy on rumor, sell on fact” scenario when the U.S.
Through there is growing concern as to how long high yielding currencies like the New Zealand and Australian dollars can keep their rates at record highs, interest in the carry trade has still improved over the past week.
Overview: The April labour market report proved stronger than generally anticipated. The data revealed a job loss of 20,000 persons in April (consensus: -75,000, DB: -40,000) and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.95% from 5.08% (consensus and DB: 5.2%). Prior months saw a mild net revision of -8,000 persons. Today?s report is consistent with an economy which has come close to a standstill, but has not slid into a recession.
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Warren Buffett said on Saturday he expects the euro and the sterling to hold their own against the U.S. dollar, in part because of U.S. fiscal and trade policies that weigh on the value of the greenback.
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This is the big mover of the day: Today’s US non-farm payrolls were unexpectedly much better than expected. US payrolls data for April showed a decline of 20,000 jobs after a revised 81,000 decline in March. Although this marks the fourth consecutive of job losses in the US, it was much better than the 80,000 job decline expected by the majority of the market. In another encouraging sign, the unemployment rate also surprised, falling to 5% in April from 5.1% in March, versus an expected 5.2%.
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